Consistency of Rainfall Record

Precipitation puts water in the watershed. Precipitation measurements help determine water availability for evaporation and streamflow, and the risk of forest fires, landslides, and soil erosion. Precipitation is liquid (rain) or frozen (sleet, hail, graupel, snow) water or a combination of both falling from the sky. Measurement of the accumulation and disappearance of frozen precipitation on the ground is discussed in the following subsection. Precipitation is measured as depth of water that would accumulate on a horizontal surface. Typical recorded values for precipitation are the daily, monthly, and annual totals (depth of water in millimeters), as well as storm total, maximum intensity (millimeters per minute or per hour), and duration (hours). Precipitation is measured at a point using a manual or automatic recording gauge and over an area using meteorological radar (e.g., Doppler) or satellite images. Measurement of rainfall with a gauge is less prone to error than the measurement of solid precipitation because it is less susceptible to the influence of wind on “catch” by gauges. Some gauges are suitable only for measuring rainfall, and others are used only for solid precipitation. Very few can measure both forms reliably. Precipitation is usually not uniform in spatial distribution, intensity, or duration within a storm. Wind flow interacting with watershed topography also affects the distribution of precipitation. The standard technique for measuring rainfall is a plastic or metal cylinder with a sharp edge and funnel-like cover to minimize evaporation. 

Rainfall is measured to the nearest 0.2 mm; an accumulation of less than this is called a “trace.” If these gauges are not measured daily, then a small amount of mineral oil or kerosene is added after each measurement to cover the surface of the water and reduce evaporative loss.

The depth of fluid is measured with a ruler. Precipitation intensity or amount can be measured automatically using weighing gauges or tipping buckets. The latter method is usually restricted to rainfall measurement. The tipping bucket gauge has a pair of buckets that pivot under a funnel such that when one bucket fills with about 0.25 mm of rain, it tips, discharging its contents and bringing the other bucket under the funnel. Tipping activates a switch that sends a pulse to the recording device. The weighing gauges can have a clock-driven chart to record weight or send an electronic signal to a data logger from a pressure transducer. Weighing gauges used to measure snow, contain antifreeze to melt the snow.

 Many studies require long term rainfall data, therefore, a test must be conducted to check homogeneity or self consistency of the rainfall record.  This is necessary because over a period of time, it may happen that there be a some obstructions (trees, buildings) may have emerged after the installation of gage or its location might have changed or observational procedure might have changed.  The inconsistency of rainfall record can be checked by graphical or statistical methods including double mass curve, the von Neumann ratio test, cumulative deviation, run test.  Double mass curve method described below is one of the most common and widely accepted methods for checking the consistency of rainfall record.

 Double-mass Curve

This method is based on the assumption that the mean accumulated precipitation for a large group of stations is not significantly affected by a change or changes in individual stations.  If we plot the mean accumulated precipitation for several stations against the accumulated precipitation of the record for the station that needs to be adjusted, any change in slope will indicate a “break” in the station record.  This is shown by point B in the Fig. for the year 1974. If the slope of the line AB (year 1970-74 in the example) is a and of the line AC (1974-85 in example fig.) is b, the adjustment of the inconsistent data is made by the ration of the slope of two line segments.  Two ways of adjustments are possible.

1.     The dataadjusted to reflect the conditions that existed prior to the indicated break.  This is done by multiplying each recent precipitation value after break point B of station X (being tested) by the ratio a/b.

2.     The data are adjusted toreflect recent conditions following the break.  This is achieved by multiplying each value of the precipitation before the break by the ratio b/a.  Adjustment of this type is generally made.

This is essentially a simple graphical method but statistical concepts and tests can be also utilized. Let us assume that we wish to check whether the data y1, y2 ,…, yN (N= sample size) are consistent data or not. For this purpose we will use another data set N x1, x2… xN, which is known to be reliable. The latter data set could be data measured at another gage or more generally the average of the data records available at several sites located in the same region as the suspected gage y. We will define the cumulative partial sums as 

 St(Y)=St-1 (Y) + Yt                         , t = 1,2,…,N 

 St(X) = St-1 (X) +Xt   , t = 1,2,…,N

in which   . Thus we have two sequences of partial sums, namely:   and  . The double mass plot is constructed as shown in the sketch below. 

Description: Description: Description: 81
                       Fig. 8.1(a)                                         Fig. 8.1(b

Figure 1(a) reflects the inconsistency in the data while Fig.1(b) reflects that series yt has a pattern consistent with that of series xt. Referring to Fig.1(a) the point where the slope changes from s1 to s2 marks the time where the inconsistency occurs. Therefore part of the record of y must be adjusted. Which part of the record must be adjusted (before the break point or after) depends on the particular case. For example, if the inconsistency in y has occurred because the gage was moved from the original location to another location (the current location), then it is logical to adjust the record before the break point.

 Limitations and Cautions

It is possible that an apparent change in slope is noticed because of a natural variation in the data which is not associated with changes in gage location, gage environment or observation procedure.  In the case of doubt, a test of hypothesis should be performed by the Fisher distribution on two data sets (before and after the break) to check whether the data are homogeneous and the break is purely by chance.

 If the fewer than 10 stations are grouped together to check the consistency of a station, the record of each station should be tested by double mass analysis for consistency by plotting it against the group of all other stations, and those records that are inconsistent should be eliminated from the group.

 This method should seldom be used in mountainous areas.  Furthermore, it is also not suitable for adjusting daily or storm precipitation.

 Example

Test the consistency of the 22 years of data of the annual precipitation measuredat stationA. Rainfall data for station A as well as the averageannual rainfall measured for a group of eight neighboring stations  located in a meteorologicallyhomogeneous region are given below as follows:

Sl. No.YearAnnual Rainfall of Station AAverage Annual Rainfall (AAR) of 8 Station Group
(mm)(mm)
11946177143
21947144132
31948178146
41949162147
51950194161
61951168155
71952196152
81953144117
91954150130
101955130190
111956141170
121957160190
131958155166
141959140150
151960120125
161961148140
171962142163
181963140145
191964130143
201965137135
211966130150
221967163165

a)     In what year is a change in regime indicated?

b)    Adjust the record data at a station A and determine the mean annual precipitation. 

Col 3Col 4Col 5Col 6
Sl. No.YearAnnual Rainfall of Station AAverage Annual Rainfall (AAR) of 8 Station groupsCumulative Station A rainfallCumulative  of 8 Station A.A.R.Correction factorAdjusted rainfall at station A
(mm)(mm)(mm)(mm)
119461771431771431.18140.8471
21947144132321275114.5875
31948178146499421141.6428
41949162147661568128.9109
51950194161855729154.3748
619511681551023884133.6854
7195219615212191036155.9663
8195314411713631153114.5875
9195415013015131283119.3619
101955130190164314730.94196
11195614117017841643141
12195716019019441833158
13195815516620991999145
14195914015022392149132
1519601201252359227495
16196114814025072414148
17196214216326492577142
18196314014527892722140
19196413014329192865130
20196513713530563000137
21196613015031863150130
22196716316533493315163
139.134


Correction factor: (0.935/1.175)= 0.7957= 0.796 or 0.8

Mean Annual Precipitation139.134
Description: Description: Description: 82

Related Posts

© 2024 Agriculture Engineering - Theme by WPEnjoy · Powered by WordPress